As the winter season begins, the overall outlook for Finland’s electricity adequacy remains good. Wind power production peaks in winter, as the coldest months are also the windiest. Distributed electricity generation across different parts of Finland supports grid balance and strengthens system reliability – but enabling such distributed production requires political commitment and clear regulation.
Atmospheric modelling and long-term weather observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) show that Finland is windiest in winter. Low-pressure activity is significantly stronger in winter than in summer, and the weakest winds occur in summertime. This seasonal pattern appears clearly in wind power production statistics: on average, around 60 percent of annual wind power is generated between October and March.
Low-pressure systems naturally bring rapid shifts in weather and wind. Strong winds are common, but so are short-lived calm periods. Typically, it is windy somewhere in Finland even if other areas experience very low wind speeds. According to FMI, the probability of large, nationwide low-wind conditions (below 4 m/s) at turbine hub height is very low – and when they do occur, they are most likely during the least windy season, summer.
Temperature and wind power production are also linked: in winter, the best production typically occurs during mild weather, while severe cold spells tend to bring lower output overall. However, wind conditions at turbine hub height can differ significantly from what is felt at ground level.
“A drop in temperature and weaker winds near the surface can actually mean stronger winds at turbine hub height. Even if the wind feels weak on the ground, turbines can still experience production-friendly conditions higher up,” explains Paavo Korpela, meteorologist and liaison manager at FMI.
According to Korpela, recent winters show that even during very cold periods, wind power production can remain reasonable, although high-output periods do become less frequent as temperatures drop.
Calm periods – how does the system cope?
The share of weather-dependent generation in Finland’s electricity mix will grow significantly, says Mikko Heikkilä, Head of Public Affairs and Communications at Fingrid. For now, Finland is in a good position at the system level.
“In the forecasts that guide Fingrid’s grid planning, future electricity production growth is largely driven by competitive onshore wind and solar power. Variable production affects system operations, but this winter the new Aurora Line between Sweden and Finland will strengthen security of supply. As long as domestic power plants and interconnectors operate normally, electricity adequacy is expected to remain good. In rare situations, adequacy risks and extreme price spikes are still possible,” Heikkilä notes.
According to him, well-functioning energy-only electricity markets and a stable investment environment solve most adequacy challenges.
“A key challenge today is that markets do not encourage investment in power generation capacity that is only needed very rarely. Demand response and electricity storage are also essential. More wind power in Eastern Finland would support adequacy and help stabilise price fluctuations – in general, geographic diversification of wind production is good for the system,” Heikkilä says.
Distributed production increases stability
According to Anni Mikkonen, CEO of Renewables Finland, Finland has the means to strengthen the reliability of variable electricity generation through more balanced geographic distribution.
“The key is to find practical solutions that allow wind power and Defence Forces operations to coexist in Eastern Finland. The government’s proposed new minimum distance between turbines and housing would restrict wind development in southern Finland and reduce geographic balance. This would weaken system reliability and could increase electricity prices in the future,” Mikkonen says.
Finnish onshore wind is among the most cost-effective ways to produce clean electricity in Europe, and new projects are built without state subsidies.
“Wind power significantly lowers electricity prices, and Finland is again expected to have some of the lowest electricity prices in Europe this year. This is crucial for attracting major industrial investments,” Mikkonen adds.
More information:
Paavo Korpela, Meteorologist and Liaison Manager, Finnish Meteorological Institute
paavo.korpela@fmi.fi, +358 29 539 2253
Mikko Heikkilä, Head of Public Affairs and Communications, Fingrid
mikko.heikkila@fingrid.fi, +358 30 395 5113
Anni Mikkonen, CEO, Renewables Finland
anni.mikkonen@suomenuusiutuvat.fi, +358 40 771 6114
More information
